By: Bantu Kubo
Zooming into the upcoming 2021/22 MTN 8 Final and unpacking the possible result in what could be a thrilling display
Edited by: Mamaili Mamaila
One of the indicators that a fairly-new Premier Soccer League (PSL) season is starting to take shape is when the MTN 8 – the league’s longest-standing knockout competition – is about to reach its conclusion, which is set to take place on Saturday, October 30, 2021.
The 2021/22 MTN 8 final, which will be hosted at the Moses Mabhida Stadium in KwaZulu-Natal, promises to be an entertaining and enterprising encounter, with the cup finalists – Cape Town City Football Club (City) and Mamelodi Sundowns Football Club’s (Sundowns) technical teams taking pride in being possession-based.
For instance, both teams believe in keeping the ball for longer periods of the game, thus playing on the front foot. As such, owing to similarities in playing philosophies, the team with better-pressing schemes stands a better chance at clinching the title.
In previewing the possible outcome ahead of the match, analysis done on domestic matches was the key factor since both teams have played 10 games each.
Analysis from the Confederation of African Football (CAF) Champions League encounters which Sundowns has participated in has been excluded to avoid unintended biases for, or against them. Additionally, the difficulty in obtaining full match statistics from CAF preliminary games will not allow for the clearest picture to be painted.
Crunching the numbers
Mamelodi Sundowns – the more in-form team – has completed about 559 passes a match, with 63% ball possession a match. Therefore, it comes as no surprise that the club has dominated possession in all their domestic matches, with an interval of [51%, 75%].
Meanwhile, Cape Town City has completed about 521 passes a match, with 58% ball possession a match. The club has dominated possession in only half the games they have played this season, which is quite the concern for a possession-based team. This essentially means that Sundowns has an upper hand when it comes to keeping possession.
As much as keeping possession is an integral part of how both teams play, it serves as the means to an end; with the end being chance creation. This, at the end of the day, is fundamentally what football is about: chance creation. Whichever style of football a certain team plays, it serves to create chances in the best possible way. This season, Sundowns has about 15 shots at goal a match, with five being on target in each match.
Further, with City having had similar numbers in that regard, this means both teams create about the same number of chances, with Sundowns consistently converting more than City.
When possession-based such teams go head-to-head, it largely boils down to which team presses more and better when out of possession, which is where this encounter is likely to be decided. This means that the team with better-pressing schemes – which is more press resistant in possession – will win this game.
Interestingly, despite dominating possession in all the games they have played, Sundowns has had more fouls than City in seven out of 10 of their encounters so far this season. This means that their work rate when out of possession is as high as their work rate when in possession. As such, they are constantly looking for the ball as they want it at their feet all the time.
This contrasts with City having more fouls than the opponent in only five of their 10 games, which might be an indication of less work without the ball, compared to Sundowns. With both teams playing a high line, work-rate out of possession is very key because they would not want their last line of defense to be exposed and caught out for pace.
Tactical approach
When looking at City’s potential starting front three such as Surprise Ralani, Fagrie Lakay, and Craig Martin; these are very quick players with great ability to get behind the defense, thus latching onto defense-splitting passes. Therefore, they would want to apply pressure on the immensely talented and creative midfield three of Thato Mokeke, Mduduzi Mdantsane, and Thabo Nodada – giving them less time and space to play that incisive pass.
Whereas, if you observe the Sundowns team, their ability to play out of a press, initiates quality fast-break attacks, makes it even more important for the opposition to come up with better and more efficient ways to press them. It is for this reason that the better pressing team will win this game; as in, the team that suffocates the other with a higher work rate out of possession is going to win the game.
Presently, both teams have everything to play for specifically when coming to the MTN 8, having won the title once each in the PSL era. Sundowns last won the cup in 2007 when it was still called the SAA Super Eight Cup, with the title having evaded their grip four times – most recently in 2016. City on the other hand, last won the cup in 2018 after reaching the final in 2017, following its reformation in 2016.
In conclusion, if we are to follow football logic, Sundowns should win comfortably tomorrow, as they are more press-resistant than City and have a higher conversion rate. Moreover, it is quite crucial to note that between the two sides, Sundowns works tirelessly to win the ball back.
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